A renewed focus on AfCFTA is timely. It is evident that Kenya is faced with diminishing support from its traditional partners. To achieve long-term self-sufficiency, it must now redirect its focus towards regional frameworks such as the African Continental Free Trade Area. The agreement has been operational since 2021 and seeks to integrate 54 of the 55 nations and 1.47 billion people into the world’s largest free trade area, with a combined GDP of approximately $3.4 trillion.[1] By reducing tariffs and harmonising trade policies, the AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade, fostering economic growth and industrialisation across the continent.
Despite its ambitious goals, the implementation of the AfCFTA has encountered several challenges. Infrastructure deficits, such as inadequate transportation networks and energy supply, have impeded the seamless movement of goods and services across borders. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) have emphasised the critical role of fundamental infrastructure in ensuring the effective implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).[2] At present, numerous African nations encounter significant deficiencies in essential infrastructure, including roads, railways, ports, air transport, energy, and telecommunications, all of which pose considerable obstacles to the success of AfCFTA. The lack of adequate infrastructure remains a primary impediment to economic growth and regional integration across the continent. In particular, the insufficiency of road networks linking African countries hinders efforts to enhance cross-border trade. Moreover, the transportation sector faces additional challenges, such as fragmentation, limited capacity, and suboptimal performance. The continent’s road and railway systems are underdeveloped, while many seaports and airports require substantial upgrades and expansion to meet growing demands.[3]
Additionally, regulatory inconsistencies and the overlapping mandates of various regional economic communities have created complexities that hinder the integration process.[4] These challenges have slowed the realisation of a unified African market, limiting the benefits that the AfCFTA promises. Another significant obstacle is the concern among member states regarding potential tariff revenue losses. The reduction or elimination of tariffs, while beneficial for trade, poses fiscal challenges for countries that rely heavily on these revenues.[5] Addressing these concerns requires the development of flanking measures and flexibilities to ensure a fair distribution of costs and benefits among member states. Such measures are essential to mitigate adjustment costs and to attain the long-term advantages of the AfCFTA.
Moreover, the legacy of colonialism has left a residue of distrust among African nations, stemming from historical exploitation and disrupted trade networks.[6] Overcoming this distrust necessitates deliberate efforts to rebuild confidence through collaborative initiatives and the demonstration of mutual economic benefits. The AfCFTA provides a platform to foster such collaboration, but it requires unwavering commitment from all member states to surmount the historical barriers that have hindered unity.
New AU Leadership and Hope for Change: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf’s Role
Amid these uncertainties, the election of Mahamoud Ali Youssouf as the new AU Chairman introduces a potentially positive shift for the region. Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s Foreign Minister since 2005, brings a wealth of diplomatic experience to the role.[7] His election comes at a time when the AU faces numerous challenges, including regional conflicts and the imperative for economic integration. It is hoped that the new leadership will prioritise economic integration, security, and intra-African trade. One of his key goals is the successful implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Youssouf’s election followed a competitive process, where he emerged victorious over notable candidates such as Kenya’s former Prime Minister, the late Raila Odinga and Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato. The selection process extended over multiple rounds, underscoring the confidence that AU member states have in Youssouf’s ability to lead the Commission effectively.[8]In his acceptance speech, Youssouf emphasised the importance of economic integration, security, and intra-African trade as cornerstones of his agenda. He highlighted the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a critical initiative that, if effectively implemented, could transform Africa’s economic landscape by creating a single market for goods and services across the continent.
Youssouf also emphasised the necessity of collaboration with the private sector to mobilise resources and drive the AU’s initiatives forward. He acknowledged that while the AU can provide the framework for integration, the active participation of private enterprises is essential to realise the full potential of agreements like the AfCFTA. This approach aims to foster a conducive environment for investment and innovation, ultimately leading to sustainable economic growth across Africa. His vision dovetails with the broader aspirations of the AfCFTA, which seeks to catalyse intra-African trade and foster industrialisation across the continent.
The new leadership provides an opportunity to focus on removing the obstacles that have delayed AfCFTA’s progress. The successful implementation of AfCFTA relies not only on the African Union’s leadership but also on the proactive engagement of individual African nations. Countries must work to dismantle internal trade barriers, reduce tariffs, and harmonise regulatory frameworks to fully exploit the vast market and opportunities AfCFTA presents. This collective effort is essential to creating a seamless and integrated continental market that benefits all member states.
A critical aspect of this endeavour involves strengthening the institutional frameworks that support the AfCFTA.[9] This includes enhancing the capacities of the AU’s departments responsible for trade and economic affairs to ensure that they are properly equipped to provide the necessary guidance and oversight. Additionally, fostering greater collaboration between the AU and regional economic communities[10] can help harmonise policies and reduce the regulatory inconsistencies that have plagued the integration process.
Furthermore, Youssouf’s leadership offers an opportunity to address the infrastructural deficits that hinder intra-African trade. By prioritising initiatives aimed at improving transportation networks, energy supply, and digital connectivity, the AU can facilitate the seamless movement of goods, services, and information across the continent. Such improvements are essential to unlocking the full potential of the AfCFTA and achieving the broader goals of economic integration and industrialisation.
Youssouf’s tenure also presents a chance to rebuild trust among African nations. By promoting transparency, equity, and inclusivity in the implementation of the AfCFTA, his leadership can help overcome the historical grievances that have fostered suspicion and hindered cooperation. Building a shared vision for the continent’s economic future, grounded in mutual respect and benefit, is crucial for the success of the AfCFTA and the broader objectives of the AU.
Kenya’s Progress in AfCFTA Implementation
Kenya has recognised the centrality of AfCFTA to Africa’s economic future and has taken proactive steps to align its national policy with the continental agenda. In June 2022, Kenya unveiled its AfCFTA Implementation Strategy for 2022-2027, which aims to diversify and expand exports within African markets and achieve a 5% annual growth in the manufacturing sector’s value-added contributions.[11] Kenya is also participating in the AfCFTA’s Guided Trade Initiative (GTI), which facilitates trade with 24 countries. However, there is untapped export potential in regions like ECOWAS and SADC. To fully capitalise, Kenya needs to focus on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automotive components, reduce tariffs, streamline customs procedures, and leverage its Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for industrial growth.
Kenya’s AfCFTA Implementation Strategy (2022-2027) is a comprehensive framework designed to harness the benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area. The strategy emphasises the importance of aligning national trade policies with continental objectives to enhance market access for Kenyan goods and services.[12] The strategy seeks to increase the competitiveness of Kenyan products in African markets by promoting value addition and product diversification. Additionally, it underscores the need for capacity building among local industries to meet the standards and demands of the broader African market.
A pivotal component of Kenya’s strategy is the focus on priority sectors that have the potential to drive economic growth. These sectors include agriculture, manufacturing, and services, each identified based on their capacity to contribute significantly to export revenues and job creation. For instance, in agriculture, there is an emphasis on agro-processing to move up the value chain, thereby increasing earnings from agricultural products.[13] In manufacturing, the focus is on sectors like textiles and apparel, which have shown promise in regional markets. The services sector, particularly financial and ICT services, is also targeted for expansion under the AfCFTA framework.[14]
Moreover, the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) represents a significant milestone in operationalising the AfCFTA. The GTI was launched to facilitate commercially meaningful trade among participating countries. It has allowed Kenya to test and refine its trade policies and procedures under the AfCFTA framework. Through the GTI, Kenya has successfully exported a diverse range of products, including tea, soaps, soda ash, and stoves, to various African countries.[15] This initiative not only demonstrates Kenya’s readiness to engage in intra-African trade but also provides valuable insights into the practical challenges and opportunities presented by the AfCFTA.
Despite these advancements, Kenya recognises the need to address existing challenges to fully capitalise on the AfCFTA. One such challenge is the underutilization of export potential in regions like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). To penetrate these markets, Kenya must focus on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automotive components, which have high demand in these regions. Additionally, reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, streamlining customs procedures, and enhancing trade facilitation measures are critical steps toward improving market access.
It is also worth noting that Special Economic Zones (SEZs) play a crucial role in Kenya’s industrial growth strategy under the AfCFTA. SEZs attract both domestic and foreign investment into key sectors by providing infrastructure, fiscal incentives, and a conducive business environment. Leveraging SEZs can enhance Kenya’s manufacturing capabilities, allowing for increased production of goods that meet the quality standards of the African market. Furthermore, SEZs serve as hubs for innovation and skills development, contributing to the overall competitiveness of Kenyan industries.
Realising the AfCFTA’s Promise for Deeper Integration and Sustainable Industrial Transformation: Concluding Reflections
To fully capitalise on the potential of AfCFTA, African countries, particularly Kenya, must collaborate more closely to drive its implementation. With the impending expiration of AGOA in 2025[16] and shifting U.S. trade policies, it is essential for African nations to strengthen economic integration and reduce dependence on traditional trade partners. By focusing on AfCFTA, countries can unlock vast opportunities within Africa’s unified market, fostering regional self-sufficiency and boosting intra-African trade. This presents a pivotal moment for Kenya to lead in expanding its economic reach within Africa, driving industrialisation, and ensuring the success of the continent’s trade integration efforts. With renewed leadership, there is hope for successful AfCFTA implementation. By aligning policies with AfCFTA’s goals, focusing on key sectors, reducing trade barriers, and leveraging initiatives like Special Economic Zones, Kenya can enhance its competitiveness and expand market access, ultimately contributing to long-term economic prosperity and a more self-sufficient Africa.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) stands as a monumental achievement in the pursuit of regional integration and economic development across the continent. By establishing a single market encompassing over 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP exceeding $2.5 trillion, it aims to facilitate the free movement of goods, services, and investments among member states.[17] This integration is expected to stimulate industrialisation, create employment opportunities, and reduce poverty levels across Africa.
Kenya’s proactive approach to AfCFTA implementation positions it as a leader in regional trade integration. The country’s strategic goal, as outlined in the Kenya AfCFTA Implementation Strategy (2022-2027), is to consolidate, diversify, and expand exports to African markets, focusing on achieving 5% real value-added growth in the manufacturing sector annually.[18] This ambitious target underscores Kenya’s commitment to leveraging the AfCFTA to drive industrial growth and economic diversification.
The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025 presents both challenges and opportunities for African countries. As preferential access to the U.S. market under AGOA diminishes, there is an urgent need for African nations to diversify their trade partnerships and reduce reliance on traditional markets. The AfCFTA offers a viable alternative by providing access to a vast continental market, thereby mitigating the potential adverse effects of AGOA’s expiration. For Kenya, this shift necessitates a reorientation of trade strategies to capitalise on intra-African trade opportunities. Regardless of whether AGOA is extended or a bilateral FTA with the U.S. is ultimately agreed upon, Kenya should still strongly pursue AfCFTA. While AGOA and any future FTA may provide preferential access to the U.S. market, they remain subject to external political conditions or fiscal costs. In contrast, the AfCFTA offers deep, reciprocal integration tailored to African economies. In parallel, Kenya’s recent immigration reforms, namely the removal of visa requirements for nearly all African nationals save for Libya and Somalia, and the abolition of the eTA for these travellers effective 30 May 2025, serve as a complementary strategy to support AfCFTA goals. African visitors may now enter Kenya without prior authorisation for up to 60 or 90 days, and East African Community nationals enjoy up to 180‑day stays.[19] This visa‑free policy maximises regional connectivity, encourages business, tourism, and intra‑African investment, and reinforces Kenya’s role as a continental economic hub.
Expanding on this momentum, the visa exemptions significantly lower non-tariff barriers that historically inhibited intra-African commerce. Regional mobility is a foundational pillar of AfCFTA, and free movement of people helps cement trust and facilitates trade linkages across borders. Kenya’s elimination of visa fees and digital registration burdens for most African travellers removes friction at entry points, thus enhancing cross‐border labour mobility and investment flows. These measures were formalised in Legal Notice No. 93 on 30 May 2025, under Regulation 15G and a new Seventeenth Schedule of the Kenya Citizenship and Immigration Regulations. East African Community nationals are now explicitly exempt from the ETA and may reside for up to 180 days; other African nationals can stay up to 90 or 60 days, depending on the country.[20] This has dramatically streamlined access across the continent.
Together, strategic economic integration under AfCFTA and streamlined immigration policies position Kenya to maximise its role as a regional trade and investment hub. While preferential U.S. market access under AGOA or a prospective FTA remains valuable, AfCFTA delivers resilience through deep, intra-continental ties that are less susceptible to external volatility. Kenya can lead in building African supply chains, expanding regional SMEs, and embedding itself at the heart of Africa’s economic future. However, this is only possible by harmonising trade policy with open mobility and committing to regulatory reforms. This integrated approach embodies the essence of true continental integration and offers a sustainable blueprint beyond reliance on external partners.
Furthermore, Kenya’s focus on value addition and industrialisation is pivotal in maximising the gains from the AfCFTA. By investing in manufacturing and processing industries, Kenya can move beyond the export of raw materials to producing finished goods with higher profit margins. This approach aligns with the objectives of Kenya’s AfCFTA Implementation Strategy, which emphasises the importance of increasing the manufacturing sector’s value-added contributions. Developing industries such as agro-processing, textiles, and automotive components can create employment opportunities and enhance the competitiveness of Kenyan products in the African market.
In conclusion, the AfCFTA presents a transformative opportunity for Kenya to enhance its economic integration within Africa, drive industrial growth, and reduce dependency on external markets. By implementing strategic reforms, focusing on value addition, and fostering regional collaboration, Kenya can position itself as a leader in intra-African trade. These efforts will not only contribute to the country’s economic prosperity but also to the broader objective of achieving sustainable development and self-sufficiency across the African continent.
How We Can Assist
At TripleOKLaw LLP, we recognise that the expiry of AGOA, the prospect of a Kenya–U.S. FTA, and the operationalisation of AfCFTA are not simply policy shifts — they are legal, commercial, and strategic turning points for businesses. The complexity of navigating overlapping regimes, compliance requirements, and new opportunities demands clear legal guidance and practical structuring.
Our team advises clients across sectors on:
- Trade Policy & Market Access – assessing the impact of AGOA’s expiry, supporting businesses in positioning for a bilateral FTA, and advising on duty, tariff, and customs implications.
- Regional Integration Compliance – helping enterprises align operations with AfCFTA rules of origin, regulatory harmonisation, and East African Community (EAC) obligations to ensure seamless intra-African trade.
- Investment Structuring & Incentives – guiding clients on leveraging Special Economic Zones (SEZs), export processing zones, and other investment frameworks to maximise competitiveness under both U.S. and African market regimes.
- Risk Mitigation & Dispute Resolution – assisting with risk assessments, contractual protections, and representation in cross-border trade disputes.
- Public–Private Partnerships & Policy Engagement – working with corporates, industry associations, and government stakeholders to influence policy, develop responsive strategies, and secure a voice in continental trade reforms.
In this era of heightened volatility but also immense opportunity, businesses cannot afford to wait and see. The right legal and strategic advice is crucial to protect existing market positions, capture new growth, and remain resilient in a transformed trade environment. At TripleOKLaw LLP, we are committed to helping our clients adapt, thrive, and lead in shaping Kenya’s and Africa’s economic future, always challenging them to SEE BEYOND the immediate horizon and position for lasting success.
[1] Marumo Nkomo, “Harnessing the African Continental Free Trade Area for Technology Transfer” (2024) African International Economic Law Network.
<https://www.afronomicslaw.org/category/analysis/harnessing-african-continental-free-tradeareatechnologytransfer#:~:text=The%20AfCFTA%20and%20Agenda%202063,technology%20transfer%20in%20economic%20development.> accessed on 30th March 2025.
[2] Sharkdam Wapmuk & Jamaludden Muhammed Ali, “The African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) and Regional Economic Integration: Prospects and Challenges” (2022) 3(1) Zamfara Journal of Politics and Development 1-15.
[3] Ibid.
[4]Chidebe Matthew Nwankwo and Collins Chikodili Ajibo, ‘Liberalizing Regional Trade Regimes Through AfCFTA: Challenges and Opportunities’, (2020) 64 Journal of African Law, 297–318
<http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021855320000194> accessed on 27th March 2025.
[5] Ibid.
[6] G Erasmus “The AfCFTA: Overview and implications” (4 July 2018),
<https://www.tralac.org/publications/article/13221-the-afcfta-overview-and-implications.html> accessed 17 March 2025.
[7] Reuters, “Djibouti’s foreign minister elected to the top African Union post” (2025)
<https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/djiboutis-foreign-minister-elected-top-african-union-post-2025-02-15/?utm> accessed 21st February 2025.
[8] Harun Maruf & Eskinder Firew, “New African Union leader elected as two major crises rage” (2025) <https://www.voanews.com/a/new-african-union-leader-elected-as-two-major-crises-rage/7976339.html?utm> accessed on 28th March 2025.
[9] Jane Kibiru & Christopher Onyango, “Domestication, Compliance and Enforcement Key to Keeping
Momentum of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)” (2020). See also Olayiwola W., “Governing the Interface between the African Continental Free Trade Area and Regional Economic Communities Free Trade Areas: Issues, Opportunities and Challenges,” (2020) ECA Publications, Addis Ababa.
[10] Apiko, P., Woolfrey, S., & Byiers, B., “The Promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)” (2020) ECDPM. Discussion Paper No. 287.
[11] State Department for Trade, “Kenya National AFCFTA Implementation Strategy” (2022)
< https://trade.go.ke/sites/default/files/AfCFTA_Policy_Brief_Final.pdf> accessed on 30th March 2025.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Ibid (n17).
[14] Ibid.
[15] Meluleki Nzimande, Yael Shafrir & Elisha Bhugwandeen, “Trading under the AfCFTA becomes a reality – guided trade initiative launched” (2022) < https://www.webberwentzel.com/News/Pages/trading-under-the-afcfta-becomes-a-reality-guided-trade-initiative-launched.aspx?utm> accessed on 27th February 2025.
[16] Ibid (n5).
[17] Ibid (n17)
[18] KiPPRA, “Promoting Sustainable Export Trade in Kenya: Unlocking Opportunities with AfCFTA” (2024)
< https://kippra.or.ke/promoting-sustainable-export-trade-in-kenya-unlocking-opportunities-with-afcfta/2/?utm> accessed on 31st March 2025.
[19] Dominic Wabwireh, ” Kenya: Visa-free travel now available for many African and Caribbean countries” (2025).
[20] Legal Notice No. 93, The Kenya Citizenship and Immigration Act.